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Discussion Starter #1
The comments coming out of that country are far beyound anything that should be coming out of the mouth of a world leader. But they arent anything new. So why such a rush?
 

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One of Iran's political ministers said the west needs Iran's oil, the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, they (Iran) are going to develop nuclear technology (weapons) and there is not much anyone can do about it. That's what the guy said. Up yours, world. :finger: They do have an attitude and it's not good.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Yeah, theat the common concensus...
However, there are a few things to consider. 1. US doesnt buy oil from Iran.
2.


Lets look at this picture. US has active forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. There was talk of US bases closing in Turkmenistan, but someone got bribed and the bases stayed. Kazakhstan recently authorised US naval basis on its territory.
This virtually blocades Iran from all sides, and most importantly, the naval bases will allow US to block iran from its main arms/nuclear supplier, Russia.

No wonder they are panicking.
 

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Nice map. You're right. Most of their oil goes to Europe. If Iran cut off the oil, that could crash the European economy. I can't figure out what they are trying to accomplish. They should know the U.S. is way over committed to get into with them. Besides, the younger generation in Iran has no real beef with the U.S. and we want to keep it that way.

Iran better be careful with Israel. Ariel Sharon said yesterday that Israel is preparing for "any eventuality." I am amazed at all of this and my gut feeling is that if anything major is going to happen, it most likely will in the next 6 - 12 months.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
There is a number of things about iran that confuses me. Prior to their revolution (1978?) they were a westernized country, and one of israels closest allies. You would assume that the older population would remember those times and would welcome a free society.
During their recent elections, it was revealed that well over 50% of their population is under 25. Now, ask yourself how is that possible? A surge in births could not account for all of that, there had to have been massive execution campaigns.
Of course a younger population is much more easily attracted toward the use of force.

As for Israel, its not as simple as it looks. They've learned from the iraqi nuclear reactor lesson, and made sure their nuclear program is dispersed in several THOUTHAND locations, most are underground, and under heavily populated areas. Not something that can be easily bombed. It could perhaps be infeltrated and sabautaged, but that that is not an easy task, even for mossad.

Combined with the estimates that they could be only months away from a nuclear weapon, not years, and a working delivery system, prompted the israelli effort to invest and develop anti missile technology. However, such a system is not full proof.
 

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I agree. On Fox news the other day they had a retired under secretary of state on. Can't remember his name. He said senior U.S. and European diplomats are really worried about this situation since the hard liners in Iran are calling the shots and the "Allah wills it" mentality may prevail. There may be no rationality to their decisions.
 

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I have read reports that US maybe ready to put troops in iran by '07. Obviously, such reports would not have surfaced unless there was some intention of doing so.
Which also coincides with US wanting to drop the number of troops in Iraq in '06. So they maybe leaving iraq, but no one says they will be headed home.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
There is a number of strings moving in between the lines, that I can see but not understand. For example, I am not convinced that Iran is really going with allah will prevail mentality. Their leaders might not be good guys, but they arent stupid. They have some agenda, probably beyound just wiping israel. Also there is the possibility that Iran may engage in nuclear warfare with Israel because it is much more likely to survive due to higher population and more area.

Further more, it is not uncommon for countries to send their armies to fight seemingly insagnificant wars so that their troops will gain expirience. After all a battle hardened army is so much more effective than a peace time one. I sometimes wonder if that is the intention of the US in places like afghanistant and iraq. If this is true, then just what is is US is getting ready to do?
 

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Right now the American public is barely supporting our efforts in Iraq. There is no way we could engage Iran on any level unless there was a absolutely clear and immediate threat to the U.S., and that most other nations supported us, like they did in the 1991 Gulf War. But to go it alone against Iran is not likely. The American public wouldn't go for that at all. Everyone is just too "Iraqed-out" right now.
 

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Not entirely. There is proverb (not english, but translated) that public opinion is a prostitute. In other words, it can be had for the price of a few 20/20 shows. Also, if Iran was to attack Isreal, US would be obligated to defend it ally, public opinion be damned.
 

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Of course if Iran attacked Israel we would come to their defense as would other countries - Brits, etc. I think Israel will do something on their own first. I admit that this whole situation is unpredictable. I'm afraid we'll turn on the news one of these mornings and it will be happening, whatever it is.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
yeah.. ww3 here we come type of thing.
Keep in mind israel is smaller than NYC, one nuclear device is enough to kill every single person in that country.
 

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What's Iran's militray like? Would it be like another Desert Storm, where we just ran through the Republican guard?
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Probably. Assuming only conventional munitions were used (unlikely) we would probly cut their military to pieces, only to be confronted by a few years of insurgent campaigns. Of course Iran is financing most of the iraqi insurgent campaigns, so its unclear who would finance the iranian ones.. but someone would do it.


However, I dont think that war would be limited to conventional munitions.
 

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I really don't understand why Iran would attack Isreal. I understand Iran's hate for them, but wouldn't it be suicide to do so? Funding a suicide bomber is one thing, completely losing control of your country is another. I would think that the first time Isreal picked up on a missle heading their way, they would unleash a volley of their own. With that, taking some major cities with them. I guess I just have more questions than I do scenarios.
 

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phatkidwit1eye said:
I really don't understand why Iran would attack Isreal. I understand Iran's hate for them, but wouldn't it be suicide to do so? Funding a suicide bomber is one thing, completely losing control of your country is another. I would think that the first time Isreal picked up on a missle heading their way, they would unleash a volley of their own. With that, taking some major cities with them. I guess I just have more questions than I do scenarios.
Just from what I've seen of the experts on TV, they figure Iran's leadership is either posturing itself as the leader of the 21st century Muslim world or they have gone nuts. The president of Iran said yesterday that it is the Europeans that should give up land for a Jewish state and take all of the Jews out of the middle east. Every country in Europe condemned that statement.

The big issue now is if Iran starts processing fissionable material, generally called Special Nuclear Material, or SNM. Once they start this, then a nuke can be built very quickly. And Iran might give SNM to terrorist groups. According to these experts, the Iranians will make their move, whatever it is, in the next several months. Even Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the IAEA, says he is tired of playing around with Iran's refusal to cooperate.

For a mind-numbing account of the Iran - IAEA situation you can check this out: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/index.shtml . Believe me, it is not easy reading. Bottom line: Iran has and is lying about its nuclear program that it is only for peaceful purposes.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I think iran's lies have long been obvious. If there are any doubts I'll make a few points.
1. As you well know iran is an oil rich country. Oil deposits often have natural gas deposits next to the oil pockets. This natural gas inerferes with pumping oil. Since natural gas is cheap, it is sometimes not profitable to pump it to storage. In those cases it is simply burned right at the well. Iran burns enough natural gas to supply electricity to their entire country, and then some. Global warming activists take note.
2. There are two types of nuclear reactors, heavy and light water. Light water reactors generate electricity, but cannot be used to make a nuclear weapon. EU offered to build a light water reactor for iran in the beginning of the negotiations. Of course iran refused.

We have no real way of knowing if iran isnt already processing SNM. After all, their program is far from transparent
 
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