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Discussion Starter #1

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Not as much class wars as economic gap and corporate control.
not big on free market anymore if it's gonna consume like a virus till it's host is dead.
Even billionaire Warren Buffet sees the futures market as dangerous.

The writer kinda floats around on his points.
 

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All hail prophet buffet. Preventing people from entering contracts is dangerous. Its the very foundation of trust and cooperation. The market is the most diversified and secure way of orginizing people. The alternative is centralized control. When the market crashes, most people take a payhit bunker down and a few year down the road everything is fine again. When centralized control fails, tanks start rolling down streets.
 

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I feel so ignorant now.
I had no idea that the GLOBAL markets were following the US markets THAT close.....per consumer staples.
Wow.
Actually......it may bring reform to market access to food commodities or more.


http://www.democracynow.org/2008/4/8/stuffed_and_starved_as_food_riots

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/11/food.foodanddrink?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN1040602920080410?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080410/wl_nm/brazil_un_food_dc

http://www.newstin.com/sim/us/52114048/en-010-001771312


I found some new phrases for my anti-free market outlooks.
Speculative attacks,
Global investment funds,
Unregulated flows of international capital ,

" Food price rises cannot simply be explained by crop yields or the expansion of the use of agricultural land for biofuels. Speculation in agricultural commodity markets runs in parallel with the rising costs of gold, oil and essential metals."

"So, absolutely, free trade has a great deal of responsibility to bear here, because countries have been forced into using free trade. And, of course, when the price of food goes up globally, countries have no reserves, they have no policies, they have no recourse, if they’re being forced to be part of the free trade system. So, yes, I think it has a great deal of responsibility."

" It’s an alternative to oil if you’re in the grain business. It’s an alternative to oil if you are one of the large industrial grain processors who are looking and lobbying very hard to make money out of the transformation of grain into ethanol."

"Food commodities should be insulated from speculators and hedge funds who profit as prices rise, "




I feel some moratoriums approaching.
Which could help but also de-stabilize the markets more.:(
 

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............The alternative is centralized control. When the market crashes, most people take a payhit bunker down and a few year down the road everything is fine again. When centralized control fails, tanks start rolling down streets.
I agree, and the controls seldom work comment....I agree with that too.
But that dont mean that its a good thing, or that it's not a bitter pill to swallow.
Why destroy what was good if you can avoid it?
Again... the root issue driving force is energy, and oil leading that.
And futures/speculators investing.
Sure, we need to find new energy soon before peak oil production is passed and we start running out,
But the investors driving inflation and causing global chaos is not needed.
There's your increase in new millionaires in america you were talking about.
Offspring of other millionaires, attacking the poor and countries economies as a whole.....for self-profit to buy more vacation homes, and mistresses and luxury cars.
The infectious greed Greenspan was talking about.

You.... can go rock climbing.... and feel fulfilled that you accomplished something and feel good about yourself, pet your dog, ride your bike, and be content.
Wealthy, and big investors....
Obsession with money is like compulsive shopping.
Fulfillment only lasts a day or two.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
First off: Of course global market are tracking the US markets. US is the economic engine the drives the whole world. The only reason china is able to expand its economy at such a pace is because it has the US market to sell stuff to. Take that away, and they have nothing, they cannot sell all that product domestically or anywhere else.
Being "forced into free trade" is an oxymoron. What they mean to say is that the protectionist measures they sat behind are fading and people are being forced in innovate to compete in a global marketplace. BooHoo. Its a good thing, people should innovate instate of stagnating.
2. Peak oil is a theory, one that seems to be more supported by people who are in the buisness of broadcasting doom, than by people who are in the buisness of dealing with oil. It may turn out to be true, but lets not talk about it like its a fact.
3. Future trading raises capital that is invested in equipment and technologies. We need that capital to come up with energy alternatives.
4. Commodity trading builds up inventories, which stabilize prices. Without it, prices would be more volitile, not less.

Look, some unknown, but large ammount of money floating around the economy (money being just paper) turned out to be worthless due to the whole mortage mess. No one knows exactly which money is representing that right now, or how much we are talking about, all we have is estimates. Here is the problem. Its still worth as much "money" as it was before the crash, but its not worth much at all in terms of products or services. The only way this could happen, is money itself starts loosing value, which is exactly what is happening. So everyone is busy trying to replace their money with commodities that arent loosing value, thus demand for commodities is going up, raising their price and creating bubbles. One big bubble busted, and its creating lots of small bubbles, which will bust to make lots of smaller bubbles. This waves will spill out over the entire world, ripple thru the global economy, subsiding more each time. Regretfully, the developing world will get the worst of it. Not because their losses will be greater (they will actually be pretty slim, since they have a much smaller piece of the global economy) but because they have so little they could afford to loose. If my grocery bill doubles, I gripe. If the grocery prices in somalia double, people starve to death. Alternativly, you could force the poor countries to insulate themselves from the global economy. They would not feel the effects of ripples like this at all. They would also remain poor forever, and have no way to climb out of their current condition. Take your pick
 

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"3. Future trading raises capital that is invested in equipment and technologies. We need that capital to come up with energy alternatives."

Where the heck did you get that from?
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Unless I'm completely wrong about futures trading.. Lets go back to the original one, with the tulips.

GuyA wants to buy, plant, grow, and sell an expensive tulip. GuyB buys shares, pays money to GuyA. GuyA takes the money and uses it to buy and care for the tulip. Is that not investing capital in equipment?
 

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Unless I'm completely wrong about futures trading.. Lets go back to the original one, with the tulips.

GuyA wants to buy, plant, grow, and sell an expensive tulip. GuyB buys shares, pays money to GuyA. GuyA takes the money and uses it to buy and care for the tulip. Is that not investing capital in equipment?




Not tulips,
Tulip bulbs.

"GuyA wants to buy, plant, grow, and sell an expensive tulip...."
Venture Capitalist provide equtiy for seed companies starting up. Not future or speculation trading.


GuyA ........ grows, and sells an expensive tulip...... GuyB buys shares, pays money to GuyA. GuyA takes the money and uses it to buy and care for the tulip.

Or GuyA has no motivation and does nothing and "Vests and Rests" = investing and resting.

or plans to retire anyway and saves profits.

or uses profits in other arenas with better profit return, like overseas investments.

or reduces production to inflate prices.

or has partners who take all profits as quarterly profit sharing.

or has plenty of expanded equity and saves profits.

or has little market expansion room left and so saves the profits.

or inflation and increased operating costs make increased production and investments forcasts unprofitable.

or sniffs coccaine and blows all his profits up his nose.


:dunno:
 

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This is silly. If guyA shares are performing poorly, guyB will dump them, their value will go down, and guyA will end up broke. There is also a chance he'll get investigate by the SEC. How is that for incentive?
 

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This is silly. If guyA shares are performing poorly, guyB will dump them, their value will go down, and guyA will end up broke. There is also a chance he'll get investigate by the SEC. How is that for incentive?

If guy a has a product that nobody on the earth wants and is unmarketable...
Lets say........ um.......... dirt mixed with toxic poision.....
As long as investors are jumping in on shares.....and guyb times it right, buying and selling....
He makes money..... Even if no dirt is sold.
 

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2. Peak oil is a theory, one that seems to be more supported by people who are in the buisness of broadcasting doom, than by people who are in the buisness of dealing with oil. It may turn out to be true, but lets not talk about it like its a fact.
The shape of the curves associated with Hubbert's Peak are, indeed, theory, though based on statistics and quite probable IMO. Surely you're not suggesting that a limited, naturally non-recurring resource won't reach a peak point, are you? I'd consider that ALL commodities will have a peak in availability, especially those that are completely consumed in their use; fact. The more important question is when that will occur and how the supply curves will be shaped.
 

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If guy a has a product that nobody on the earth wants and is unmarketable...
Lets say........ um.......... dirt mixed with toxic poision.....
As long as investors are jumping in on shares.....and guyb times it right, buying and selling....
He makes money..... Even if no dirt is sold.

Sure stuff like that happens, because there are suckers out there. But for the most part, investors dont just throw money away. For example, would you buy some stock in a telecommunication company with shady accounting practices?
 

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The shape of the curves associated with Hubbert's Peak are, indeed, theory, though based on statistics and quite probable IMO. Surely you're not suggesting that a limited, naturally non-recurring resource won't reach a peak point, are you? I'd consider that ALL commodities will have a peak in availability, especially those that are completely consumed in their use; fact. The more important question is when that will occur and how the supply curves will be shaped.

The one statistic that really messes with oil peaks is the estemated available oil resources. Globally, that number hasnt come down since we started pumping oil. EVER. The more oil we pump, the more we develop technologies to access more. The actual ammount of oil in the ground is unknown, so all we can do is estimate. So if we estimate that we found all the sweet crude there is to find, and discount all other oil types, than we are running out already. If we include oil shale, we got a few thouthand years worth. Once the time frame extends into hundreds of years, you have to admit that reaching hydrocarbon deposits on titan becomes feasable. Once we stop talking about just earth, than the resource stops being finate. So the realy question is wether or not we have enough to get us to that point. Or if space travel isnt your cup of tea, consider that everything we use oil for, can be accomplished without it, just at a higher price (There are cellulous plastics out there too), in which case the question becomes wether or not we have enough oil to perfect alternative technologies.
 

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Nope, I'm in agreement, those are the oil issues. The real problem for the outsider is figuring out who to believe. All those reporting have agendas or axes to grind.

Besides, I believe that if we were suddenly cut off from oil, there would be gov't research projects similar to the Manhattan Program to develop wind, solar, and geothermal that would then be used to provide mobile sources like hydrogen and the like. In fact, to some extent I wish we'd just vacate the Middle East, let them obliterate their oil fields in wars and force us to make a drastic change. Kinda.
 

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I dont know how much good its going to do to force us to make a drastic change. Slow changes are much easier to deal with.

Here is the big question I have about oil prices right now (and other commodities as well), we got two competing theories.
1. Increased demand from oil, most notably from the developing world, is outpacind supply. Could be valid considering someone just started making the $1,000 car. Same goes for other commodities, as their manufacturing base continues to increase. This causes an increase in price, driving up inflation world wide, making alternative technologies more profitable. The big picture is bleak in the short run, but pretty bright in the long.
2. Increasing price of oil and other commodities, makes them a valuable investment, especially in the face of falling dollar and poor performance of other markets. In addition, a great deal of money is still tied up in real estate, and people are trying to move it out into some other safe heaven. This movement creates an artificial demand for commodities (as vehicles to carry wealth, rather than as consumables), inflating their stated value beyound their actual need. In other words, another bubble. In this view, the short term looks good (kinda) since commodities allows to offset the losses in other markets, however in the long term, the bubble will pop, with not only the money invested in commodities being lost, but also the money invested in alternatives, which will all of a suddent become unprofitable. IE imagine if the big 3 retool to make viable electric cars, and then oil drops to $20 a barrel.
 

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This is silly. If guyA shares are performing poorly, guyB will dump them, their value will go down, and guyA will end up broke. There is also a chance he'll get investigate by the SEC. How is that for incentive?
More on topic with your question....


Depends on if we are talking small investor, silent investor, board member investor/controller of executives, which makes the executives straw bosses, or board member investor with voting...

Case in point...
Kerkorian and Chrysler.
Wanted merger to happen, to boost his stocks, stocks jump up, he makes money.
Inflation due to rising oil prices.. Stocks dive...
Sell most stocks to hedge elsewhere
"March 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court refused to block a lawsuit that accuses billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian of selling more than 7 million DaimlerChrysler AG shares based on inside information that the automaker's cash flow was declining.

The justices, without comment, today rejected an appeal by Kerkorian and his Tracinda Corp. investment company, leaving intact a lower court decision that let the lawsuit proceed in federal court in Los Angeles.

The shareholder suit alleges that James Aljian, who helped manage Tracinda's investments and served on DaimlerChrysler's shareholder committee board, passed confidential information about the company to Kerkorian in 1999.

Over the next several months, Tracinda sold 7.6 million DaimlerChrysler shares, avoiding $120 million in losses at the expense of other shareholders, the suit says."
...before further dive...

Sue Chrysler, settle out of court.... make more money, move on to the next investment target.
 

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........ For example, would you buy some stock in a telecommunication company with shady accounting practices?

Free Trade.
Buy low, sell high.
Ethics<Money


If there's money to make, they do it.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Look, this is devolving into slogans. Lets pick it back up when your personal situation improves and your outlook brightens
 
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