Is Iran trying to start a war? - Sportbike Forum: Sportbike Motorcycle Forums
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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 05:49 AM Thread Starter
 
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Is Iran trying to start a war?

The comments coming out of that country are far beyound anything that should be coming out of the mouth of a world leader. But they arent anything new. So why such a rush?



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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 10:15 AM
 
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One of Iran's political ministers said the west needs Iran's oil, the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, they (Iran) are going to develop nuclear technology (weapons) and there is not much anyone can do about it. That's what the guy said. Up yours, world. They do have an attitude and it's not good.
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 10:24 AM Thread Starter
 
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Yeah, theat the common concensus...
However, there are a few things to consider. 1. US doesnt buy oil from Iran.
2.

Lets look at this picture. US has active forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. There was talk of US bases closing in Turkmenistan, but someone got bribed and the bases stayed. Kazakhstan recently authorised US naval basis on its territory.
This virtually blocades Iran from all sides, and most importantly, the naval bases will allow US to block iran from its main arms/nuclear supplier, Russia.

No wonder they are panicking.



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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 10:35 AM
 
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Nice map. You're right. Most of their oil goes to Europe. If Iran cut off the oil, that could crash the European economy. I can't figure out what they are trying to accomplish. They should know the U.S. is way over committed to get into with them. Besides, the younger generation in Iran has no real beef with the U.S. and we want to keep it that way.

Iran better be careful with Israel. Ariel Sharon said yesterday that Israel is preparing for "any eventuality." I am amazed at all of this and my gut feeling is that if anything major is going to happen, it most likely will in the next 6 - 12 months.
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post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 11:21 AM Thread Starter
 
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There is a number of things about iran that confuses me. Prior to their revolution (1978?) they were a westernized country, and one of israels closest allies. You would assume that the older population would remember those times and would welcome a free society.
During their recent elections, it was revealed that well over 50% of their population is under 25. Now, ask yourself how is that possible? A surge in births could not account for all of that, there had to have been massive execution campaigns.
Of course a younger population is much more easily attracted toward the use of force.

As for Israel, its not as simple as it looks. They've learned from the iraqi nuclear reactor lesson, and made sure their nuclear program is dispersed in several THOUTHAND locations, most are underground, and under heavily populated areas. Not something that can be easily bombed. It could perhaps be infeltrated and sabautaged, but that that is not an easy task, even for mossad.

Combined with the estimates that they could be only months away from a nuclear weapon, not years, and a working delivery system, prompted the israelli effort to invest and develop anti missile technology. However, such a system is not full proof.



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post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 11:32 AM
 
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I agree. On Fox news the other day they had a retired under secretary of state on. Can't remember his name. He said senior U.S. and European diplomats are really worried about this situation since the hard liners in Iran are calling the shots and the "Allah wills it" mentality may prevail. There may be no rationality to their decisions.
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post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 11:37 AM Thread Starter
 
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I have read reports that US maybe ready to put troops in iran by '07. Obviously, such reports would not have surfaced unless there was some intention of doing so.
Which also coincides with US wanting to drop the number of troops in Iraq in '06. So they maybe leaving iraq, but no one says they will be headed home.



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post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 11:41 AM Thread Starter
 
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There is a number of strings moving in between the lines, that I can see but not understand. For example, I am not convinced that Iran is really going with allah will prevail mentality. Their leaders might not be good guys, but they arent stupid. They have some agenda, probably beyound just wiping israel. Also there is the possibility that Iran may engage in nuclear warfare with Israel because it is much more likely to survive due to higher population and more area.

Further more, it is not uncommon for countries to send their armies to fight seemingly insagnificant wars so that their troops will gain expirience. After all a battle hardened army is so much more effective than a peace time one. I sometimes wonder if that is the intention of the US in places like afghanistant and iraq. If this is true, then just what is is US is getting ready to do?



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post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 12:03 PM
 
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Right now the American public is barely supporting our efforts in Iraq. There is no way we could engage Iran on any level unless there was a absolutely clear and immediate threat to the U.S., and that most other nations supported us, like they did in the 1991 Gulf War. But to go it alone against Iran is not likely. The American public wouldn't go for that at all. Everyone is just too "Iraqed-out" right now.
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post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 12-09-2005, 12:06 PM Thread Starter
 
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Not entirely. There is proverb (not english, but translated) that public opinion is a prostitute. In other words, it can be had for the price of a few 20/20 shows. Also, if Iran was to attack Isreal, US would be obligated to defend it ally, public opinion be damned.



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